David Horgan

How long can traders hang on if we went to lock down like Italy

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22 hours ago, EPV said:

I don’t have the answers, I have an opinion. It doesn’t seem to correspond with yours. Ah well. Even Trump has said he believes it will be seasonal. Where do you think he gets his advice from, the beano?

Quite what my length of time in the industry has to do with talking about Coronavirus I don’t know. I can read the news like you can. Anyone can hold an opinion. 

Do I know you? Do you know me? This is the second thinly veiled dig at me you have had on here, in the last 3 weeks. You seem to have a little hard on for me. 

The moderators on the forum here don’t really like little spats, which is understandable. It doesn’t look good on the board as a whole. 

I happen to live very close to the areas you are going to looking at cars tonight (Petts Wood, Orpington) so why don’t you send me a private message (to keep the board free from this sort of thing) tell me the name of a pub near where you’re going to be later and a time, and I’ll swing by and buy you a pint and you can tell me to my face all your problems with me and we can sort it all out? 

Seems Trump may have changed his mind, maybe he is getting it from the Dandy today.

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Interest rate cuts, giveaway budget are signs the government is preparing for serious economic consequences.

Time to sit on some cash and buy selectively.

To add some posativity I've just had the best 2 weeks since early January. Now sitting on plenty of cash which under normal circumstances isn't a good thing

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But the bit that's different this time is that its driven by fear of an illness, and the potential knock on of job losses, not the conventional slow down and recession we have all seen before.To those that don't give a f**k, its just another day. So as the big businesses with 'responsibility to the well being of staff', close their doors, the little businesses like ours have the opportunity to sell, assuming people are allowed out and we arent on a total lock down like China was.Italy is still open but with restrictions like one at a time in shops. I've got to stay optimistic, hope Boris doesnt close the schools because my Mrs works in the NHS so it will be me looking after the kids and they think my work is boring. 

 

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Well I'm going to take advantage of the low priced holidays.. I'm going to write March off and if anyone lives through this on my return.. Start selling again!! Hysteria is no good for anyone's business.. Except Andrex!! :-)

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15 hours ago, beenaroundtheblock said:

Only pharmacies and food outlets allowed to stay open in Italy. 

Now declared a global pandemic. Still nothing to worry about 

Do you live in Italy?

Must be a long commute every day if you sell cars in the UK.

Joe Rogan did a very good interview with someone who knew what he was talking about. 

He obviously wasn't a Car Dealer.

A few good points he made were if you are old and you smoke, it's game over.

Also it doesn't seem to affect children hardly at all.

18 minutes ago, Funny Farm said:

Well I'm going to take advantage of the low priced holidays.. I'm going to write March off and if anyone lives through this on my return.. Start selling again!! Hysteria is no good for anyone's business.. Except Andrex!! :-)

I'm in Lanzarote at the moment. The majority of the people in the hotel are knocking on a bit, so many of them coughing and sneezing into their hands and then carrying on with the all inclusive food.

Everything is normal here.

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1 hour ago, Boycie said:

Do you live in Italy?

Must be a long commute every day if you sell cars in the UK.

Joe Rogan did a very good interview with someone who knew what he was talking about. 

He obviously wasn't a Car Dealer.

A few good points he made were if you are old and you smoke, it's game over.

Also it doesn't seem to affect children hardly at all.

I'm in Lanzarote at the moment. The majority of the people in the hotel are knocking on a bit, so many of them coughing and sneezing into their hands and then carrying on with the all inclusive food.

Everything is normal here.

No but I can read. Don't worry though it's just the flu.

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1 hour ago, beenaroundtheblock said:

No but I can read. Don't worry though it's just the flu.

Did I say that? 

It's not the flu.

The flu kills more people.

If you want to keep whining on about it, that's up to you.

As I have previously stated, about 1,700 people die every day in this country.

Are you concerned about Sepsis or Cancer?

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41 minutes ago, Boycie said:

Did I say that? 

It's not the flu.

The flu kills more people.

If you want to keep whining on about it, that's up to you.

As I have previously stated, about 1,700 people die every day in this country.

Are you concerned about Sepsis or cancer?

 

What's really scary is that people think like you. Since when can cancer or sepsis be transmitted from person to person?

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30 minutes ago, beenaroundtheblock said:

What's really scary is that people think like you. Since when can cancer or sepsis be transmitted from person to person?

Cancer and Sepsis kill hundreds of thousands of people a year in this country.

Flu kills tens of thousands.

The Corona virus has killed 10 in 2 months.

Can you understand this? 

I'm not sure I can explain it any simpler for you.

Most people will catch it and not know.

616,000 people died in this country in 2018.

If you are that worried, nail your doors and windows shut and sit it out.

The good thing about this is that it will cut down on Flu cases in the future, because people will stop sneezing into their hands and spreading germs about.

Just wondering, do you smoke?

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1 hour ago, Boycie said:

Cancer and Sepsis kill hundreds of thousands of people a year in this country.

Flu kills tens of thousands.

The Corona virus has killed 10 in 2 months.

Can you understand this? 

I'm not sure I can explain it any simpler for you.

Most people will catch it and not know.

616,000 people died in this country in 2018.

If you are that worried, nail your doors and windows shut and sit it out.

The good thing about this is that it will cut down on Flu cases in the future, because people will stop sneezing into their hands and spreading germs about.

Just wondering, do you smoke?

No I don't smoke. 

I don't think it will be the end of the world or that millions will die, neither do I think it's just something to be complacent about. Yes the vast majority will survive it and some will never know they has it. But plenty will die such as the elderly and those who already have medical conditions. Italy are now in the position of not putting the elderly on ventilators as they don't have long left to live anyway, still never mind.

 

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Boycie said:

Cancer and Sepsis kill hundreds of thousands of people a year in this country.

Flu kills tens of thousands.

The Corona virus has killed 10 in 2 months.

Can you understand this? 

I'm not sure I can explain it any simpler for you.

Most people will catch it and not know.

616,000 people died in this country in 2018.

If you are that worried, nail your doors and windows shut and sit it out.

The good thing about this is that it will cut down on Flu cases in the future, because people will stop sneezing into their hands and spreading germs about.

Just wondering, do you smoke?

I don't think you grasp the statistics associated with this pandemic.

Coronavirus is over ten times as contagious as flu.  It has a fatality rate 10-20 times that of flu. Most people will only by mildly affected, but enough will be made seriously ill to cause the NHS to go into meltdown.

The government are estimating around 150000 people will need intensive care. The UK has 4000 intensive care beds and not enough IC trained nurses to staff them all. Scotland has 190 IC beds. 70% are already in use. Per head of population we have one-third the European average of IC beds. We are not well equipped to tackle this.

To bring it back to car dealing, we decided two weeks ago not to buy any more stock. Our stock is at about 50%.  I suggest plan for the worst but hope for the best. Failing to plan is planning to fail.

My gut feeling is this will run for six months or more and many businesses will fail.

Edited by Halfpenny

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The biggest fallout will ultimately be the number of personal and business bankruptcies unfortunately.

Having lives through the impacts of a world war our parents and grandparents lived cautiously, unfortunately our generation less so.

However, the idea of losing approx. 10% of the over 80’s is a scary prospect and right now dwarfs the long term impacts. Especially if you are in the Care Home business.

On the upside, there should be a good supply of Honda Jazz’s....

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15 hours ago, Halfpenny said:

To bring it back to car dealing, we decided two weeks ago not to buy any more stock. Our stock is at about 50%.  I suggest plan for the worst but hope for the best. Failing to plan is planning to fail.

My gut feeling is this will run for six months or more and many businesses will fail.

This exactly. 

It's not how many will die, it's the economic impact of lockdown. Look at the stock market and that says it all.

I have given AT 30 days notice today, no point in paying my biggest overhead when customers are sat at home.

Love the AT company line " more people will be at home looking at cars"..... just not buying

Sensible reduction of overheads and i'll still be here this time next year

 

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30 minutes ago, AAM90 said:

This exactly. 

It's not how many will die, it's the economic impact of lockdown. Look at the stock market and that says it all.

I have given AT 30 days notice today, no point in paying my biggest overhead when customers are sat at home.

Love the AT company line " more people will be at home looking at cars"..... just not buying

Sensible reduction of overheads and i'll still be here this time next year

 

I agree I would be trying to downsize as many standing contracts as possible no matter what notice is stated ( I don’t think they are still enforcible ) so if they won’t play ball just say you can’t pay.Advertising,HPI,card machines,rents,dealer management systems and also check with the local authority about making the new extended business rates relief applicable etc.

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8 hours ago, CCC said:

The biggest fallout will ultimately be the number of personal and business bankruptcies unfortunately.

Having lives through the impacts of a world war our parents and grandparents lived cautiously, unfortunately our generation less so.

However, the idea of losing approx. 10% of the over 80’s is a scary prospect and right now dwarfs the long term impacts. Especially if you are in the Care Home business.

On the upside, there should be a good supply of Honda Jazz’s....

Not such an upside if all the potential customers are dead....

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I have had 3 pre orders this week for cars, not needed till next week, i have got them serviced valeted tested and ready, my reason being i do not know what may happen next week, bear in mind also these customers may get laid off or anything next week, these customers are informed there cars are "ready" my other cars are all "ready" [bare one which has a twin] to go out the door, can i rely on for example my testing station to be open ? buying as normal, but a bit more cautiously, those 3 that are going out next week might be the last i see of cash for a bit, so get it while i can i guess, yes people always need cars, but this virus is not your usual "recession" high interest rate" and i have worked through them all, 35 years in this job, 60 next year, been there seen it, got the scars, hoping the good thing that happens is it hits the cowboys hard , and the non planners hard, then when we pull through, we come back stronger, harder, and more profitable.............  

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As a company we have implemented a plan that means all but 2 staff members are now working remotely but to be fair we have slowed right down and had some cancellations.  

Something that is going to hit us is logistics as we use our own drivers as well as a local Company and Movex.  The local company has quite a few older drivers who have said they don’t want to work until further notice.  This has already led to collection cancellations for next week and extra expense as our drivers now need hire cars as we don’t want them using public transport (whilst they are still happy to work).  

As for Movex, quotes have been ridiculously high which I guess reflects the time of year and lack of drivers happy to make their way the length of the country stopping on crowded service stations and using public transport.

 

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52 minutes ago, Contracts said:

As for Movex, quotes have been ridiculously high

Here’s an opportunity for any of you lads who own a truck & are saying business is quiet. Make hay etc. etc.

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Posted (edited)
On 3/12/2020 at 7:23 PM, Boycie said:

Cancer and Sepsis kill hundreds of thousands of people a year in this country.

Flu kills tens of thousands.

The Corona virus has killed 10 in 2 months.

Can you understand this? 

I'm not sure I can explain it any simpler for you.

Most people will catch it and not know.

616,000 people died in this country in 2018.

If you are that worried, nail your doors and windows shut and sit it out.

The good thing about this is that it will cut down on Flu cases in the future, because people will stop sneezing into their hands and spreading germs about.

Just wondering, do you smoke?

That comment in bold is painfully ironic.

First I must say this. As the username indicates I am not a car dealer. I am just an average person who has been following the developments of covid-19 since mid January. I am interested in what people in various sectors think and how they are reacting. I am firmly of the belief that this will cause big ripples in the economy. I am no expert but personally I think people might need to scale back on big ticket items over the next few months due to rising levels of unemployment, caused by both government and personal reactions to the virus.

I have just signed up here to pick up on this post because it really pains me to read tripe like this and I feel a distinct obligation to educate those who contnue to spout it. Firstly cancer and sepsis are not contagous whereas Covid-19 has a high level of transmissibility. ie one person can give it to many others.

Secondly the reason its only killed 10 people in two months is due to something called exponential growth. Now I doubt thats something you have even heard of right now let alone understand what it means. Please take a few minutes to look at the below video and educate yourself.

Looking at Italy by way of example, and I have collected a lot of data from BNO tracking on this subject, the total cases/deaths progressed as follows in February:

Date/cases/deaths

Feb 19 / 3 / 0

Feb 20 / 3 / 0

Feb 21 / 19 / 0

Feb 22 / 62 / 2

Feb 23 / 155 / 3

Feb 24 / 223 / 6

Feb 25 / 322 / 11

Feb 26 Forgot to collect

Feb 27 / 655 / 17

Feb 28 / 889 / 21

So as you can see. To begin with it didnt look like much was happening and then it accelerated and now Italy are at 17,000+ cases and 1200+ deaths. Finally to those saying its just the flu, I say this. Yes its closely related to the influenza family but so was the Spanish flu and look what that did around the world. Get your fucking heads out of the sand.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0BSaMH4hINY

 

Edited by Not_a_dealer

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Posted (edited)
25 minutes ago, Not_a_dealer said:

That comment in bold is painfully ironic.

First I must say this. As the username indicates I am not a car dealer. I am just an average person who has been following the developments of covid-19 since mid January. I am interested in what people in various sectors think and how they are reacting. I am firmly of the belief that this will cause big ripples in the economy. I am no expert but personally I think people need to ensure their car is up to scratch and buy something ASAP to ensure their personal mobility/ transport is not compromised, as having a dependable vehicle in the event of a global recession/ economic meltdown is very important.

I have just signed up here to pick up on this post because it really pains me to read tripe like this and I feel a distinct obligation to educate those who contnue to spout it. Firstly cancer and sepsis are not contagous whereas Covid-19 has a high level of transmissibility. ie one person can give it to many others.

Secondly the reason its only killed 10 people in two months is due to something called exponential growth. Now I doubt thats something you have even heard of right now let alone understand what it means. Please take a few minutes to look at the below video and educate yourself.

Looking at Italy by way of example, and I have collected a lot of data from BNO tracking on this subject, the total cases/deaths progressed as follows in February:

Date/cases/deaths

Feb 19 / 3 / 0

Feb 20 / 3 / 0

Feb 21 / 19 / 0

Feb 22 / 62 / 2

Feb 23 / 155 / 3

Feb 24 / 223 / 6

Feb 25 / 322 / 11

Feb 26 Forgot to collect

Feb 27 / 655 / 17

Feb 28 / 889 / 21

So as you can see. To begin with it didnt look like much was happening and then it accelerated and now Italy are at 17,000+ cases and 1200+ deaths. Finally to those saying its just the flu, I say this. Yes its closely related to the influenza family but so was the Spanish flu and look what that did around the world. Get your fucking heads out of the sand.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0BSaMH4hINY

 

Very good post, clearly from the global government's reaction it is more dangerous than we are able to be told. It does surprise me sometimes that people monitor this forum as a way of getting the 'word on the street'... from car dealers! Anyway, I amended your post slightly to ensure you make some friends ;):lol:

Edited by Mojo121

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26 minutes ago, Not_a_dealer said:

Get your fucking heads out of the sand.

Great way to introduce yourself with a first post "f-bomb"...……..

 

29 minutes ago, Not_a_dealer said:

something called exponential growth. Now I doubt thats something you have even heard of

To clarify,  yes I am well aware of the concept of exponential growth. Believe it or not, some of us car dealers did go to school/ college/ university.

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30 minutes ago, Not_a_dealer said:

That comment in bold is painfully ironic.

First I must say this. As the username indicates I am not a car dealer. I am just an average person who has been following the developments of covid-19 since mid January. I am interested in what people in various sectors think and how they are reacting. I am firmly of the belief that this will cause big ripples in the economy. I am no expert but personally I think people might need to scale back on big ticket items over the next few months due to rising levels of unemployment, caused by both government and personal reactions to the virus.

I have just signed up here to pick up on this post because it really pains me to read tripe like this and I feel a distinct obligation to educate those who contnue to spout it. Firstly cancer and sepsis are not contagous whereas Covid-19 has a high level of transmissibility. ie one person can give it to many others.

Secondly the reason its only killed 10 people in two months is due to something called exponential growth. Now I doubt thats something you have even heard of right now let alone understand what it means. Please take a few minutes to look at the below video and educate yourself.

Looking at Italy by way of example, and I have collected a lot of data from BNO tracking on this subject, the total cases/deaths progressed as follows in February:

Date/cases/deaths

Feb 19 / 3 / 0

Feb 20 / 3 / 0

Feb 21 / 19 / 0

Feb 22 / 62 / 2

Feb 23 / 155 / 3

Feb 24 / 223 / 6

Feb 25 / 322 / 11

Feb 26 Forgot to collect

Feb 27 / 655 / 17

Feb 28 / 889 / 21

So as you can see. To begin with it didnt look like much was happening and then it accelerated and now Italy are at 17,000+ cases and 1200+ deaths. Finally to those saying its just the flu, I say this. Yes its closely related to the influenza family but so was the Spanish flu and look what that did around the world. Get your fucking heads out of the sand.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0BSaMH4hINY

 

“I am no expert, I’ve just read the news and I’ve signed up here to tell you all off, naughty boys”

Errr, cheers.

It must be some life you lead. To have all the time in the world to sign up to a random forum, state you actually have no expertise (none of us do) say all you have done is follow the news (as we all have) and have the courtesy to lecture us. Very kind of you. 
 

Out of sheer morbid curiosity, how may other Internet forums have you signed up for that you have nothing to do with, to tell all the people on that forum you’re an average person with no expertise but to listen to your rant anyhow? 
 

Just find yourself a bird and unload in her? You’ll feel much better. 

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Posted (edited)
22 minutes ago, Mojo121 said:

Very good post, clearly from the global government's reaction it is more dangerous than we are able to be told. It does surprise me sometimes that people monitor this forum as a way of getting the 'word on the street'... from car dealers! Anyway, I amended your post slightly to ensure you make some friends ;):lol:

Thanks for the edit :)
I have to 'fess up' that there is an ulterior motive to my observation of this forum. I have been thinking of replacing my vehicle for something newer, but in part due to my low milage I am still driving around in a 2001 VW Golf 4 motion., but hey its damn reliable. Potentially if a lot of people needed to hand back their finance/lease cars and prices dropped I could be tempted. But due to being an orthodox tight arse the thought of reducing my bank balance by a sum five digits for a newer car fills me with absolute horror.

Not that I would want to see people in the unfortunate position of having to hand back their cars. But If the situation ever presented itself and subsequently prices dropped enough I might be tempted.

Edited by Not_a_dealer
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26 minutes ago, Not_a_dealer said:

Thanks for the edit :)
I have to 'fess up' that there is an ulterior motive to my observation of this forum. I have been thinking of replacing my vehicle for something newer, but in part due to my low milage I am still driving around in a 2001 VW Golf 4 motion., but hey its damn reliable. Potentially if a lot of people needed to hand back their finance/lease cars and prices dropped I could be tempted. But due to being an orthodox tight arse the thought of reducing my bank balance by a sum five digits for a newer car fills me with absolute horror.

Not that I would want to see people in the unfortunate position of having to hand back their cars. But If the situation ever presented itself and subsequently prices dropped enough I might be tempted.

I can’t think of anything worse than having a pellet like you as a customer :wacko:

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