David Horgan

How long can traders hang on if we went to lock down like Italy

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5 minutes ago, MarkTVS said:

I can’t think of anything worse than having a pellet like you as a customer :wacko:

Thats a lovely story. You should publish it.

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7 hours ago, Not_a_dealer said:

Thanks for the edit :)
I have to 'fess up' that there is an ulterior motive to my observation of this forum. I have been thinking of replacing my vehicle for something newer, but in part due to my low milage I am still driving around in a 2001 VW Golf 4 motion., but hey its damn reliable. Potentially if a lot of people needed to hand back their finance/lease cars and prices dropped I could be tempted. But due to being an orthodox tight arse the thought of reducing my bank balance by a sum five digits for a newer car fills me with absolute horror.

Not that I would want to see people in the unfortunate position of having to hand back their cars. But If the situation ever presented itself and subsequently prices dropped enough I might be tempted.

Have to admit, I stopped being interested when you said you own a VW... 

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8 hours ago, Not_a_dealer said:

I am still driving around in a 2001 VW Golf 4 motion

Knew he was gonna be a vagman 

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47 minutes ago, Del Boy said:

Knew he was gonna be a vagman 

I wouldn't want to see what's on his hard drive.

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My experience is Cam Belts only need  changing once a car has been put into trade, anything before this they can last for 10 years and it’s only precautionary.....

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10 hours ago, Not_a_dealer said:

That comment in bold is painfully ironic.

First I must say this. As the username indicates I am not a car dealer. I am just an average person who has been following the developments of covid-19 since mid January. I am interested in what people in various sectors think and how they are reacting. I am firmly of the belief that this will cause big ripples in the economy. I am no expert but personally I think people might need to scale back on big ticket items over the next few months due to rising levels of unemployment, caused by both government and personal reactions to the virus.

I have just signed up here to pick up on this post because it really pains me to read tripe like this and I feel a distinct obligation to educate those who contnue to spout it. Firstly cancer and sepsis are not contagous whereas Covid-19 has a high level of transmissibility. ie one person can give it to many others.

Secondly the reason its only killed 10 people in two months is due to something called exponential growth. Now I doubt thats something you have even heard of right now let alone understand what it means. Please take a few minutes to look at the below video and educate yourself.

Looking at Italy by way of example, and I have collected a lot of data from BNO tracking on this subject, the total cases/deaths progressed as follows in February:

Date/cases/deaths

Feb 19 / 3 / 0

Feb 20 / 3 / 0

Feb 21 / 19 / 0

Feb 22 / 62 / 2

Feb 23 / 155 / 3

Feb 24 / 223 / 6

Feb 25 / 322 / 11

Feb 26 Forgot to collect

Feb 27 / 655 / 17

Feb 28 / 889 / 21

So as you can see. To begin with it didnt look like much was happening and then it accelerated and now Italy are at 17,000+ cases and 1200+ deaths. Finally to those saying its just the flu, I say this. Yes its closely related to the influenza family but so was the Spanish flu and look what that did around the world. Get your fucking heads out of the sand.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0BSaMH4hINY

 

Jesus. 

As I am still in Lanzarote, I was planning to put my head in the sand today. Now I'm not so sure.

I went onto Google to find out what 'exponential growth' was, because I am obviously a bit stupid, but I still don't understand.

Could you put those figures into a spreadsheet? Perhaps get some more up to date ones as well?

China had 8 new cases yesterday by the way. What is the opposite of growth?

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, MarkTVS said:

Has the cambelt been changed?

Its chain not belt driven and yes it was done at just over 110k miles. I have no intention to part exchanging it to the trade when I get a new car so you dont need to worry about that contracts.

1 hour ago, Boycie said:

Jesus. 

As I am still in Lanzarote, I was planning to put my head in the sand today. Now I'm not so sure.

I went onto Google to find out what 'exponential growth' was, because I am obviously a bit stupid, but I still don't understand.

Could you put those figures into a spreadsheet? Perhaps get some more up to date ones as well?

China had 8 new cases yesterday by the way. What is the opposite of growth?

Im not going to post my stats, purely because they are all screendumps so it would take a long time to type up. However if you are interested you might wish to browse these links.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/

https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

China is a communist regime. Do you believe the sanctions that they have imposed would work in the UK? I certainly dont.

2 hours ago, Del Boy said:

Knew he was gonna be a vagman 

:lol::lol::lol:

 

 

Edited by Not_a_dealer

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2 hours ago, Del Boy said:

Knew he was gonna be a vagman 

I thought that said virgin when I first saw it....

31 minutes ago, Not_a_dealer said:

Its chain not belt driven and yes it was done at just over 110k miles. I have no intention to part exchanging it to the trade when I get a new car so you dont need to worry about that contracts.

Im not going to post my stats, purely because they are all screendumps so it would take a long time to type up. However if you are interested you might wish to browse these links.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/

https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

China is a communist regime. Do you believe the sanctions that they have imposed would work in the UK? I certainly dont.

:lol::lol::lol:

 

 

So you are not disagreeing that China has less cases now?

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9 hours ago, Not_a_dealer said:

Thats a lovely story. You should publish it.

Thank you for the warning and you certainly got a reaction.It would be interesting to know what you do for a living. I am sure most of the guys on here are awhere of the potential of this virus.Quite a few will be classed as self employed and probably will not be offered any help including  £94 sick pay.The fact is that self isolating ( with zero income) might finish or bankrupt a lot of self employed people.

I have looked on The Lancet site regarding Italy and the projections are worse than you have stated.I think we are 3 weeks behind them.

Good luck.

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2 minutes ago, Boycie said:

I thought that said virgin when I first saw it....

So you are not disagreeing that China has less cases now?

Some people disagree with their numbers but I have no reason do discredit them. However what are they going to do? Retain the lockdown until a vaccine is developed?

PS Good luck getting home. A number of UK fights destined for Spain have just turned around mid flight.

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7 minutes ago, trade vet said:

Thank you for the warning and you certainly got a reaction.It would be interesting to know what you do for a living. I am sure most of the guys on here are awhere of the potential of this virus.Quite a few will be classed as self employed and probably will not be offered any help including  £94 sick pay.The fact is that self isolating ( with zero income) might finish or bankrupt a lot of self employed people.

I have looked on The Lancet site regarding Italy and the projections are worse than you have stated.I think we are 3 weeks behind them.

Good luck.

I just say what I see,  if people dont like me for it or want to fire back with insults then water off a ducks back. I will not state my employment details but I am self employed too. Sadly this will cause problems for many people with regard to finances.

Yes the similarity to italy does concern me.

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8 minutes ago, Not_a_dealer said:

Some people disagree with their numbers but I have no reason do discredit them. However what are they going to do? Retain the lockdown until a vaccine is developed?

PS Good luck getting home. A number of UK fights destined for Spain have just turned around mid flight.

Clearly, your massive knowledge of disease doesn't extend to knowing where Lanzarote is.

Secondly, I suspect that you might be using the Daily Mail website for your information.

Thirdly, you don't seem to understand that I won't be flying to Spain if I am in Lanzarote.

Fourthly, if I am stuck in an all inclusive hotel here for several more weeks, I suspect I will enjoy it more than you, living in your bedroom at your parents house.

 

 

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1 minute ago, Boycie said:

Clearly, your massive knowledge of disease doesn't extend to knowing where Lanzarote is.

Secondly, I suspect that you might be using the Daily Mail website for your information.

Thirdly, you don't seem to understand that I won't be flying to Spain if I am in Lanzarote.

Fourthly, if I am stuck in an all inclusive hotel here for several more weeks, I suspect I will enjoy it more than you, living in your bedroom at your parents house.

 

 

1) Irrelevant its still governed by Spain who have recenty declared a state of emergency.

2) Flight radar

3) See 1

4) All inclusive? Now why doesnt that surprise me.:lol:

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Who Needs Arfur when we have notadealer? 

Mods, please dont bar him yet, he's good value.

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Since when has ‘good value’ meant ‘a twat’?

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3 minutes ago, BHM said:

Since when has ‘good value’ meant ‘a twat’?

I'm looking forward to more scary stats from him. And he's watching some flight scanner website too. Hope he's stocked up on toilet roll in his bedroom, god knows what will happen when he discovers Porn.

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1 hour ago, MattR said:

I'm looking forward to more scary stats from him. And he's watching some flight scanner website too. Hope he's stocked up on toilet roll in his bedroom, god knows what will happen when he discovers Porn.

I will leave you all to it now seeing as my presence is clearly not wanted. Several of you are in the know about whats likely to happen and I wish those people the best of luck.

For those that dont have two braincells to rub together. Well you will find out soon enough.

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2 minutes ago, Not_a_dealer said:

I will leave you all to it now

Hallelujah! Praise the Lord!

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4 minutes ago, C B said:

None car dealer joins car dealer forum to spout a load of wank juice and scaremongering. 

I don't speak for the forum but as far as I'm concerned it's not welcome. 

At least his loo roll should come in handy.

  • Haha 1

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47 minutes ago, BHM said:

Hallelujah! Praise the Lord!

I'll second that. He lasted about as long as a dry cough and high temperature.

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