CAP has, until now, been reluctant to forecast short-term values. Such is the immense sensitivity of the market.
However, the forecaster has now told Car Dealer exactly what it thinks will happen during the rest of the year.
Headline figure? Additional depreciation over the norm will be 7-8 per cent. That’s up to 8 per cent more than what we would ordinarily see.
However, CAP is at pains to point out this is an average figure, heavily slanted by losses of heavy, large-engined machines.
No, what’s more worrying is the situation seen in the Focus-type C-sector. A contracting retail market here may lead to more pressure than the larger Mondeo-type D-sector, where values have been dropping for some time.
Indeed, CAP reckons the D-sector has fallen so much, it’s now actually one of the more stable sectors to buy into.
Economical supermini and city cars are clearly the place to be, though. CAP says values will, for the rest of the year, be very little changed – or even unchanged.
Running costs will dominate buyers’ thoughts. Plainly, cheap to run cars will do well, while thirsty stuff will suffer. But an interesting trend may be the realisation that owners of larger cars may be financially better off staying with their car and swallowing the higher running costs, rather than taking the growing disposal hit.
In summary, though, CAP says the coming months will be difficult.
You can read the full CAP column in the next issue of Car Dealer: click the subscribe tab on the left of this page now to reserve you copy.