The long hot spells, summer holidays or the World Cup – car dealers up and down the country are trying to work out which has had the biggest impact on customer numbers.
But what’s really going on in the used car market this summer? Are showrooms quieter than normal, or is the market actually booming?
Depending on who you speak to, the motor trade is in a strange place at the moment. New car dealers are enjoying a boost in numbers with the market up a staggering 11.7% in July.
Attractive new car deals and incredibly low finance offers from Chinese newcomers seem to be dragging buyers away from the used car market.
What’s more, the used picture is much harder to understand with no regular, official figures from the trade bodies to dissect either.
Ask the UK’s largest used car marketplace, Autotrader, what’s happening out there, and the team will paint a relatively positive picture.
On Friday’s podcast episode, chief customer officer Ian Plummer, said August was often a quieter period for the motor trade and can ‘feel quiet’, but he said its data reveals used cars are selling at the same pace as they were a few months back and retail prices are rising.
Plummer said: ‘August is not the busiest month for new and used cars, but it’s actually quite important to remember it probably was last year as well.’
He also believes that the booming new car market – led by those great offers on Chinese cars – is probably taking some used car buyers out of the market.
‘I think maybe a few people are being priced back into new cars,’ he said on the podcast.
‘There’s no other sector – hospitality or retail – at 10% growth and the economy is not at 10% – yet new cars are. So, potentially that might be pricing people back into new and maybe out of used cars.’
When you look at some of the deals available on cars like the Jaecoo 7 – on offer for around £250 per month – then you could well believe that to be the case.
Resilient
Plummer’s colleague, Marc Palmer, says the data he’s seen shows a used car market that is ‘broadly resilient’.
The head of strategy and insight for the used car marketplace believes ‘buyers are still out shopping and still converting’ this summer.
‘There’s no doubt it may feel a little quieter on forecourts at this point, with schools out and holidays naturally taking some heat out of day-to-day showroom activity,’ said Palmer.
‘But we wouldn’t say this is a market that’s under pressure. The latest Autotrader data points to a used car market that remains broadly resilient with cars leaving forecourts broadly in line with last year, taking just 31 days in July, while like-for-like prices are still up 0.8% year-on-year.’
Palmer explained that the picture is not ‘uniform’, though, and depending on what dealers are selling on their forecourts, performance could fluctuate and, how they perceive the market to be performing as a result, will differ.
The Iran War and rising fuel prices have pushed many buyers towards electric cars and, as Plummer pointed out, around 20% of all leads are now going to used EVs – so if you’re not stocking any dealers will be missing out on demand.
Palmer said: ‘Demand is shifting to electric and more affordable segments, with used EV demand up and electric cars selling almost a week faster than the wider market.
‘At the same time, the new car market is continuing to show real momentum, with strong growth in registrations and retailer enquiries, helped by increased choice, compelling offers and buyers being priced back into new cars.
‘So yes, there is a normal seasonal quietness in parts of the market, but the fundamentals remain healthy.’
What are dealers saying?
Used car dealer oracle Umesh Samani – chairman of the Independent Motor Dealers Association (IMDA) – polled 249 of his members on July sales last weekend.
More than half (63%) said it was ‘ticking over’, poor or a ‘disaster’. Some 13% of respondents of his straw poll said it was a great month and 21% said it was a good month.
Samani said: ‘Generally a lot of dealers are saying leads are slow and commitment is low, but a few exceptions have had a great July.
‘I guess it’s just about having the right stock at the right time.’
Car supermarket boss Jamie Caple, of Car Quay, said his figures show July was slower this year at his dealership compared to last – but he’s still positive.
‘I don’t necessarily feel this summer dip that people talk about,’ he said. ‘We’ve historically had good summers.’
He said part of his success last month was down to a bulk buy of Volkswagen ID.4 electric cars that led to some 14 sales in July alone.
Caple added: ‘It doesn’t feel as rosy as 12 months ago. Definitely not. The job’s getting a bit more difficult and customers are becoming a little bit more challenging.
‘I think financial difficulties are biting people and maybe a car’s not as much of a priority.’
Used car dealer Theo Cook runs Bowen’s Garage with his dad in Ross on Wye. He told Car Dealer that the summer months had been very good at his showroom.
Cook specialises in low mileage cars that he targets at older drivers and he thinks his clientele is less affected by the seasons and school holidays.
He said: ‘I’ve got a slightly older client base and if they want to buy the car, they buy the car, whether it’s January, August or November.’
He said a lack of sales wasn’t his problem, but rising prep costs were.
‘Prep costs are absolutely through the roof,’ he explained.
‘Whether that’s paint, whether that’s cars that are needing more mechanically, I have noticed that our prep costs per unit are as high as they’ve ever been, or higher than they’ve ever been.’
Over at Hilton Garage, the used car supermarket run by George Manning, they have been feeling the pinch of summer.
He said: ‘After a strong first quarter the job has undoubtedly got harder. This has always been a seasonal case traditionally but this time it seems to have held on longer than expected.
‘I’d find it hard to believe many dealers are having it away.
‘Dealers are getting confused by the bullish headlines on used values holding up. Supply is doing a lot of the heavy lifting on values at the moment and there’s a storm approaching on middle aged stock.’
Manning said he was also frustrated to always be hearing about ‘engagement’ from used car marketplaces.
‘Yes, there’s plenty of engagement out there, but engagement isn’t conversion – I think all dealers are feeling how much more difficult this has got,’ he said.
Good shape
Derren Martin, consultant for used car data provider Cazana, says he thinks the market is in a ‘pretty good place’.
‘Demand may have drifted away slightly, but retail prices are being maintained and trade values are dropping by less than the usual seasonal average,’ he said.
‘The incredibly hot weather may have a small impact on demand, but let’s not forget, used cars are often a necessity purchase, so the market is still active.
‘Dealers we’ve spoken to are steady – not breaking any records but certainly not too down. It’s the holiday season and the market is doing what the market does at this time.’
As many experts pointed out, Martin highlighted increasing EV demand across the used car market and said these were ‘doing particularly well’.
Over at advertising sites Cargurus and Pistonheads, managing director Amanda Symonds said the data they’re seeing is pretty ‘typical’ for this time of year.
She said: ‘While broad price trends are in line with the typical quiet period seen during these weeks, the underlying data suggests a market with real momentum in the right segments as shoppers turn to the used market for value.’
But she added the picture is ‘far from uniform’ with coupe prices up 9% year-on-year and convertibles up 7%.
‘Both of these types of vehicle are significantly outperforming the broader market as consumers turn to the used market for models that are becoming harder to find new,’ she said.’
‘Tesla is also up 6% year-on-year and has risen 11% in the past 90 days alone, reflecting the shift in buyer appetite toward electric vehicles as running costs have come into sharper focus.’
However, Carwow – which has both a used car advertising site and auction platform – said demand in July has cooled.
Will Jackson, head of commercial, said: ‘When we speak to dealers, they attribute this partly to the weather – with multiple 30 degree C plus heatwaves – and partly to the impact of England in the World Cup semi final, meaning fewer people were thinking about buying and selling cars.
‘We have seen demand return since the football ended, and it is being distributed favourably to those dealers with deals.’
He added Chinese brands were getting a lot of attention on their site and new EV enquiries in the last quarter were up 52% on the previous three months.
So, depending on who you ask, this summer’s market is a mixed bag. But with September’s new plate change around the corner and the UK returning to work, minds are sure to turn back to changing cars again. We hope.
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