A 6.41m used car market looks on track following Q4 easing, says Cox Automotive

Time 10 months ago

The used car market is on course to reach 6.41m transactions, new data forecasts.

In a ‘mid-month review, Cox Automotive predicts 6.41m used car transactions will take place in 2020. If true, it’ll mean the year could end 19.2 per cent down on 2019.

Philip Nothard, insight and strategy director for Cox Automotive, said: ‘The market was in a strong place at the end of Q3 after a 4.4 per cent year-on-year increase in used car transactions.

‘Subsequent easing of supply and demand in the early stages of Q4 means a 6.41m used car market in 2020 — as forecast in the latest Cox Automotive Insight Report — looks on track.

‘In the report we forecast 1.3m used car transactions in Q4 (-25 per cent).Current supply and demand levels make this look like a realistic outcome, meaning the year could end -19.2 per cent down compared to 2019.’

Meanwhile on a more general level, the firm states that used vehicle supply in the market is down, but much of this seasonal.

Nothard said: ‘The constraint on vehicle supply has been much discussed over recent months — something that’s unlikely to change anytime soon — and the latest data shows that supply has once again dipped at the start of November.

‘Undoubtedly the introduction of a second round of national restrictions has played a part in the drop, but it’s important to remember that a supply dip around this time of year is perfectly normal.

‘In the wholesale market, vendors typically ease their auction activity ahead of the new year, but the easing has been compounded this year by reduced demand. Vendors are unsurprisingly cautious about entering vehicles into a weak marketplace.’

James Batchelor's avatar

James – or Batch as he’s known – started at Car Dealer in 2010, first as the work experience boy, eventually becoming editor in 2013. He worked for Auto Express as editor-at-large and was the face of Carbuyer’s YouTube reviews. In 2020, he went freelance and now writes for a number of national titles and contributes regularly to Car Dealer.

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