9:58 am, November 23, 2011
THE MD of BMW and Mini believes this winter could be the toughest yet for the car market as he fears sales are about to hit rock bottom.
Tim Abbott says the car industry is facing a bleak six months which could result in some brands closing dealerships and swathes of staff facing the chop.
The German manufacturer is on course to finish 2011 with healthy sales and profit margins, but that hasn’t stopped Abbott worrying about what’s to come.
‘We’re in for the toughest winter yet,’ he said. ‘The market will bottom out. The retail share is down a huge amount with only fleet sales staying buoyant.
‘We all thought 2011 would be tough to begin with then get better in the second half. In fact the opposite has been true – the first half was strong but it’s really fallen away. There’s no doubt things will be tough going forwards.’
In September, the Society of Motor Manufacturer and Traders chief executive Paul Everitt told us that he feared the car sales market could remain flat for five years. However, Abbott doesn’t share that view.
‘I don’t agree with Paul there,’ he said. ‘I think come 2013 things will be starting to get better. But 2012 is going to be very tough indeed.
‘If we manage not to go back into recession then I think that’s as good as we are going to get. The market will be flat lining for the next six months then I hope the Olympics will give us a good boost.’
Abbott is also concerned the current crisis in Europe could spread further and have a profound negative impact on the UK.
‘With Europe stuttering we can’t just carry on as an island on our own,’ he explained. ‘We’re connected to Europe so if it isn’t working my fear is the contagion will spread. We are in a seriously dangerous place. Six months ago I didn’t think falling back into recession was possible, I thought it would be slow but we’d come out of it. But today, I pick up a newspaper and think ‘what next?’ I genuinely believe we have to be ready to face the worst.’
Despite this worrying view, the BMW boss believes his brand is in a good place to ride out the storm. He said a new 1 Series, the current 5 Series and a new 3 Series, which is set to arrive early next year, will all help boost sales.
‘It’s new product that will pull us through,’ he explained. ‘Premium brands are actually in a good place. They are selling very well in comparison to others and we’ll end this year and look back at it as a very good one. But we’re not complacent. We know what could be around the corner and are prepared.’
