Some 15.4m cars aged at least 10 years old or older will be on UK roads by 2027 due to the current supply disruption and a shortage of components, new analysis has found.
Drivers will be behind the wheel of an extra 3.6m decade-old cars in five years compared with 2021, a new record, Auto Trader has said.
Disruption to the new car market caused by the Covid-19 pandemic is to blame for the predicted rise in older vehicles.
Limited supplies of semiconductors and other components have left two million older cars on the road compared with pre-Covid trends.
This has pushed up the average asking price for 10-year-old cars on Auto Trader by £2,000 to £6,176 since 2019.
The BMW 3 Series, Volkswagen Golf and Ford Fiesta are the most popular decade-old models among potential buyers.
Auto Trader director Ian Plummer told the PA news agency: ‘The aftermath of Covid means that around 40 per cent of cars on the road will be more than 10 years old in five years’ time.
‘The sheer shortage of cars, combined with the practical necessity for drivers to stay on the road, is pushing prices higher.
‘As long as those market dynamics remain in place, drivers will have to get used to paying more for older cars.’
Auto Trader based its forecast on analysis of Driver and Vehicle Licensing Agency (DVLA) data.
Retailer Halfords expressed concerns over the implications of older cars remaining in use.
Chief executive Graham Stapleton said: ‘Vehicle reliability has improved in recent years but there is no getting away from the fact that older cars are more likely to develop faults, are more costly to maintain and are more polluting.
‘This represents a risk to road safety, yet another squeeze on motorists’ wallets and a threat to the UK’s emissions reduction goals.
‘With an ageing car fleet, it’s more important than ever that people keep their cars properly maintained, serviced and up to date with their MoT.’