10:50 am, June 3, 2025
Cox Automotive says that new car sales are likely to rise this year as the firm revealed its ‘cautiously optimistic’ forecasts for the coming months.
Now into the sixth month of 2025, Cox has unveiled its new car forecasts for the year, which estimate over two million registrations in the 12 months to the end of December.
That figure would represent a year-on-year rise of 5.7% and a chunky 29.1% rise from the Covid-affected low of 2022, despite still being 9.8% below pre-pandemic averages.
Cox’s experts say that the market has so far enjoyed a strong start to the year, driven by fleet demand and a ‘modest’ recovery in private retail registrations.
Analysts expect fleets to retain the majority of transactions (50%) throughout the rest of the year, while private registrations could rise by 2% to 47%.
Experts also pointed to the ‘significant inroads’ made by Chinese brands in the UK, with BYD in particular enjoying a stellar 2025 so far.
The brand, which has its targets set on being the UK’s number one car brand within three years, is currently achieving a 1.68% market share and 631% year-on-year growth in between January and April.
Cox says that brands like BYD, Jaecoo, and Omoda are ‘reshaping the UK’s brand hierarchy’ and ‘challenging legacy manufacturers to innovate and adapt’.
Philip Nothard, insight director at Cox Automotive Europe, said: ‘Breaking the two million mark in 2025 would be a key milestone for the UK’s automotive recovery.
‘However, creating effective strategies to manage the changing competitive environment is crucial. Effective brand partnerships will be crucial in navigating these changes.
‘UK stakeholders must adapt their sourcing, logistics, and partnerships to reflect Asia’s growing influence. This includes preparing for reduced European supply and accommodating more diverse product standards.’
Elsewhere, EVs are continuing to gain traction, with Q1 2025 seeing record-breaking registrations. However, Cox has urged caution, questioning the ‘sustainability of EV adoption without deeper policy and fiscal support’.
The UK is also still projected to fall 4% short of its 28% ZEV mandate target of EV registrations, with that gap set to get even wider over the coming years.
Nothard added: ‘While the UK government has adjusted the ZEV mandate to reduce the financial penalties on manufacturers who don’t meet the targets, these are minor in the greater context of the current pressures on the industry.
‘With the industry’s exports under threat due to tariffs, along with complications in the global supply chain and inconsistent consumer demand for EVs, much more needs to be done.’
