An electric car being charged, via PAAn electric car being charged, via PA


Battery-electric vehicle sales poised to hit 414,000 mark in 2024, says Cap HPI

  • Total of 414,000 BEV sales forecast for this year by Cap HPI analysts
  • Figure of 439,000 predicted for new petrol registrations
  • ‘Significant uptick’ in pricing during last quarter of 2023

Time 12:37 pm, April 18, 2024

Sales of battery-electric vehicles are set to top 400,000 this year.

That’s according to a new report from Cap HPI following a study by its consulting team designed to give decision-makers an all-round view of the electric vehicle market.

The latest analysis from the POWER UPdate has identified what it calls ‘a significant shift in size segment in January 2024’.

The team say there has been ‘a considerable decline in upper-medium vehicles, from 45% to 30% of all UK BEV sales, and an increase in smaller cars, from 20% to 30%’.

Comparing BEV and full-market registrations by segment, the January data shows the first signs of the new BEV market returning to normal, says Cap HPI, with BEV registration shares starting to align with the overall market.

Matt Freeman, managing consultant at Cap HPI Consulting, said: ‘As the BEV market continues to evolve, it’s essential to keep up to date with the developments.

‘A wide range of factors influence the adoption of this new technology, from pricing and residual values to the roll-out of charging infrastructure and taxation policy.

‘Our analysis aims to keep the industry informed every quarter.’

He added: ‘The Cap HPI POWER UPdate uses up-to-the-minute data to provide tailored insight on a wide range of market-shaping factors.’

It includes new market and pricing, charging network updates, plus used market and forecast insight.

Freeman said: ‘The data is invaluable in understanding the trends that are shaping our industry, and as a bespoke analysis it can be tailored to focus on key brands and sectors.’

Last year, Tesla continued its domination of the market, with 50,000 of the vehicles registered, of which 36,000 were the Model Y. The Model 3 was given a facelift at the end of the year, which is expected to give Tesla an even stronger performance this year.

MG took second place with 30,000 units, of which two-thirds were MG4.

There was ‘a significant uptick in average list pricing’ in the fourth quarter of last year – up £3,000 on the previous quarter at £53,000.

But although list prices have risen across the UK new car market, significant discounts have also been available, says Cap HPI, which may have led consumers to opt for more expensive models.

Equally, some more expensive BEVs are on the market, such as the Rolls-Royce Spectre, which costs £330,000.

Q4 saw nearly as many £100,000+ BEVs registered at 2,362 as BEVs that cost less than £30,000 (2,553).

Cap HPI said the market is continuing to rise regarding product offer, with 480 models now available.

Mark Turnbull, director of OEM and consulting at Cap HPI, said sales of alternative-fuel are forecast to rise, thanks to continued government intervention, and exceed new petrol registrations.

BEV volumes for 2024 are forecast to be slightly lower, though, at 414,000 versus 439,000.

‘We can expect a more diverse marketplace in the next two years, new OEMs entering the market, and model ranges continuing to expand,’ he said.

‘Additionally, the average size of batteries has now stabilised around the 60-90kWh sector, which dominates the market, suggesting it is the optimum size for most UK drivers.’

John Bowman's avatar

John has been with Car Dealer since 2013 after spending 25 years in the newspaper industry as a reporter then a sub-editor/assistant chief sub-editor on regional and national titles. John is chief sub-editor in the editorial department, working on Car Dealer, as well as handling social media.

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