7:56 am, March 13, 2026
The government’s plan to phase out petrol and diesel cars has been blasted as unrealistic and a ‘fantasy’ by the UK’s automotive trade body.
The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders has again warned that unless the 2035 target is urgently reviewed it risks putting the UK’s car industry under serious pressure.
Currently, under the ZEV mandate, 80% of all new cars (and 70% of new vans) sold by 2030 have to be pure-electric, while some hybrids will be allowed to remain on sale until 2035. From then onwards, only pure-electric vehicles will allowed to be sold in the UK.
The mandate gradually increases the share of electric cars that manufacturers must sell each year, rising from 28% in 2024 to 80% by 2030 and reaching 100% by 2035. Companies that miss the targets face substantial financial penalties.
Speaking at the SMMT’s Electrified conference in Westminster yesterday (Mar 12), the organisation’s chief Mike Hawes urged ministers to rethink the strategy, arguing that high battery and energy costs, expensive charging and weaker-than-expected consumer demand are making the transition far more difficult than anticipated.
‘As the targets ramp up and flexibilities become less effective, the cost of bridging demand to ambition becomes ever more extortionate — 2027 promises a compliance crunch,’ he said.
‘Our projections suggest this year’s market for EV cars and vans will be significantly short of ZEV mandate targets.
‘Yet from the end of 2027, the mandate trajectories accelerate. That means, in just two years, we will need to more than double electric car market share — from less than a quarter to more than a half — and quadruple van share.
‘And from 2029, flexibilities will no longer be available. Those targets are fantasy, or rather a nightmare. I do not know anyone in the industry — anyone — who believes they will be met.’
Hawes emphasised the urgent need to reanalyse the mandate targets, pointing to carmakers needing unsustainable levels of discounting to reach the targets.
‘For the avoidance of any doubt, this industry remains totally committed to net zero, that destination has not changed and will not change.
‘Sometimes, to reach your destination, your satnav reroutes you, sometimes a diversion is necessary to avoid a roadblock. When the facts change, we change our minds, but not our goal.’
Without a change to EV sales targets, Volkswagen’s head of sales said the price of petrol and diesel cars will have to rise in order to meet the target set out.
‘I believe that the cost of individual transportation will go up significantly, because I can’t believe that by 2030 there will be natural demand that takes us to 80% electric vehicles – because prices are still too high,’ said Martin Sander.
‘There is a limit to how much we as the car industry are willing and capable to incentivise electric vehicles to get to a certain number. And if we have to get to 80%, this will not only happen by incentivising even more, but if we do that the cost of ICE vehicles will go up.’
However, speaking at the same event, minister for aviation, maritime and decarbonisation Kier Mather said that the government was resolutely committed to the transition, and that an early review was not on the table.
‘It is beginning this year, but early 2027, we feel, is the right point to make sure that we can test properly where the pressure points lie in the ZEV mandate and make sure that it continues to work for manufacturers,’ he said.
‘The government is incredibly clear that the EV transition is something that we stand resolutely behind.’
Whitehall has previously said that it is reviewing the mandate and any challenges will be revealed in early 2027.
